Bajaj Steel (BAJAJST) | News Based Sentiment Analysis

• On September 26, 2025, Bajaj Steel Industries' shares closed at ₹552.45, marking a -3.45% decline from ₹572.20, and a -2.60% drop from ₹586.95 on September 24, 2025. This recent downturn continues a trend of fluctuating investor sentiment, despite a 7.69% return over the past month. The company's market capitalization currently stands at ₹1149.10 crore.
• The quarter ending June 2025 saw a significant 31.92% quarter-on-quarter revenue decline to ₹108.93 crore, the lowest in three years, as reported on September 26, 2025. Total expenses for the same period were ₹97.72 crore, resulting in an EBIT of ₹11.22 crore.
• Despite the recent revenue decline, Bajaj Steel maintains a strong financial position with total assets growing 7.19% to ₹603.60 crore and total equity reaching ₹387.42 crore, as of the report on September 26, 2025. Liabilities decreased by -6.41% to ₹216.19 crore during the same period.
• An intrinsic value analysis conducted on September 25, 2025, estimates the company's median intrinsic value at ₹106.49, while the stock is currently trading at a substantial 437% premium. Fair values from different models range from ₹45.91 (Price/Sales) to ₹152.51 (EV/EBIDTA).
• Earlier in the month, on September 3, 2025, shareholders approved a final dividend of INR 1 per equity share for the financial year ending March 31, 2025, with the next dividend pay date projected for October 2, 2025.
• On September 19, 2025, Bajaj Steel reported an operating profit of ₹18.15 crore for Q4 FY2024-25, a 2.09% increase quarter-on-quarter. Profit after tax also rose significantly, up 31.73% quarter-on-quarter to ₹18.06 crore, and total income reached ₹153.50 crore, an 11.20% increase quarter-on-quarter.

The Investment Story: September presented a mixed bag for Bajaj Steel, with a strong finish to FY2024-25 overshadowed by a concerning revenue decline in the subsequent quarter and a significant premium to its estimated intrinsic value. Investor sentiment remains volatile, reflecting the company's fluctuating performance.

What It Means for Investors: The conflicting results create uncertainty. While the dividend is a positive, the revenue decline and overvaluation suggest caution. The long-term analyst forecast from the previous month remains a potential upside, but requires a significant turnaround.

Looking Ahead: Investors should closely monitor the company's ability to address the revenue decline and justify its current market valuation. Tracking the stock's performance against its intrinsic value will be crucial.

The Bottom Line: Bajaj Steel Industries remains a high-risk investment. The recent results underscore the need for a sustained recovery in revenue and a more reasonable valuation before investor confidence can be restored.