Banco Comercial (BCP) | News Based Sentiment Analysis

• On August 29, 2025, Bank Millennium, a subsidiary of Banco Comercial Português S.A., received approval from the Polish Financial Supervision Authority (KNF) to include its first-half 2025 net profit in its CET1 capital. This strengthens Bank Millennium’s capital position, which positively impacts Banco Comercial Português S.A.’s overall capital adequacy, demonstrating a healthy financial standing for the group.
• Following the completion of its €200 million share buy-back program on August 26, 2025 – initiated on April 14, 2025 – Millennium BCP now holds 2.05% of its share capital in repurchased shares. This buy-back, totaling approximately €199,999,980 from 309,362,863 shares, is a key component of BCP’s 2025-28 Strategic Plan focused on returning up to 75% of profits to shareholders.
• Banco Comercial Português (ELI:BCP) experienced a 3.48% decline in its stock price on September 5, 2025, losing 0.03 points to trade at 0.71 on the PSI. This made BCP one of the biggest losers on the Lisbon stock exchange that day, signaling potential short-term market pressure.
• Looking ahead, a counter-cyclical capital buffer rate of 1% will be applied in Poland starting September 25, 2025, impacting BCP’s subsidiary, Bank Millennium. The Financial Stability Committee recommends increasing this to 2% after 12 months, and the specific financial impact on BCP remains to be reported, introducing a potential regulatory challenge.
• Millennium BCP’s strong capital position, with a Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 15.9% in early 2025, continues to support its capital allocation strategy. This ratio is comfortably above the bank’s 2028 target of 13.5%, indicating financial stability and the capacity for future shareholder returns.
• Banco Comercial Português S.A. has a Q2 Analyst presentation scheduled for September 18, 2025. While details are currently unavailable, this presentation will be a crucial opportunity for management to share updates on performance and future guidance, offering investors a key insight into the bank’s trajectory.

The Investment Story: Millennium BCP is actively returning capital to shareholders while navigating a changing regulatory landscape in Poland. The bank’s strong capital position provides a buffer, but the new Polish capital buffer requires close monitoring.

What It Means for Investors: The share buy-back is a positive sign, but the Polish regulatory changes introduce uncertainty. Investors should pay close attention to the September 18, 2025 analyst presentation for clarity on the impact of these changes and any adjustments to guidance.

Looking Ahead: The September 18, 2025 analyst presentation is the key event to watch. Monitoring the impact of the Polish capital buffer and any related analyst reactions will also be crucial for assessing the bank’s future performance.

The Bottom Line: Millennium BCP appears to be executing its strategic plan effectively, prioritizing shareholder returns while proactively addressing regulatory challenges. The upcoming presentation will be pivotal in understanding the full picture and evaluating the bank’s long-term prospects.