Exmar N.V (EXM) | News Based Sentiment Analysis

• On September 18, 2025, Exmar secured a five-year LNG import deal with Regasificadora Del Pacífico (RDP) for Colombia's Buenaventura project, deploying a floating storage unit to support Ecopetrol's gas capacity of 60 MMCFD. This partnership, highlighted by Exmar CEO Carl-Antoine Saverys, addresses Colombia’s growing reliance on natural gas imports and signals Exmar’s expansion into new markets. Following this announcement, Exmar’s stock price increased by 1.80% to 10.16 EUR.
• Saverex NV continued its takeover bid for Exmar NV, with 2,375,542 shares (3.99% of outstanding shares) tendered as of September 16, 2025. This brings Saverex’s total holdings to 53,100,056 shares (89.24%), and with shares held by Nicolas Saverys and Exmar, affiliated parties control 92.54% of the company. Saverex decided to proceed with the bid despite not reaching the initial 95% acceptance threshold.
• Exmar’s stock experienced volatility in mid-September, gaining 1.73% on September 12, 2025, rising from 9.83€ to 10.00€, with a daily fluctuation of 2.24%. However, trading volume decreased by 161 shares on that day, and a “sell signal” issued on August 26, 2025, resulted in a -2.91% fall.
• Morningstar reported Exmar NV’s price at €9.98 on September 17, 2025, with a 52-week range of €7.56–13.70 and a market capitalization of €793.57M. The previous close price was €9.90, and the day’s range was €9.93–9.99, with volume at 1,031 shares.
• Analyst consensus remains “Hold” with an average price target of 7.55 EUR, representing a potential downside of -24.29% as of September 2025. The ratings breakdown includes 1 strong sell, 3 sell, and 3 hold recommendations from 7 analysts.
• Analysts forecast a significant decline in Exmar NV’s financial performance for 2025, projecting revenue of 152.5M, a -56.3% decrease from 348.9M, and EPS of 0.3, an -89.4% decrease from 3.

The Investment Story: September was a month of contrasts for Exmar, marked by a significant takeover bid from Saverex, a new LNG import contract in Colombia, and concerning analyst forecasts predicting substantial revenue and earnings declines. The company is navigating a complex landscape of shareholder activity and challenging financial projections.

What It Means for Investors: The Saverex takeover bid dominates the investment narrative, offering a potential exit opportunity at a premium. However, the negative analyst outlook and declining financial forecasts raise concerns about the company’s near-term performance, creating a high-risk, high-reward scenario.

Looking Ahead: Investors should closely monitor the completion of the Saverex takeover and the impact of the new LNG import contract on Exmar’s revenue stream. The resolution of the dispute with ENI, as well as the delivery of newbuild vessels, will also be key factors to watch.

The Bottom Line: Exmar presents a speculative investment opportunity driven primarily by the ongoing takeover bid. While the new contract offers some positive momentum, the significant financial headwinds and negative analyst sentiment suggest caution is warranted.