Pernod Ricard S.A (RI) | News Based Sentiment Analysis

• On September 20, 2025, Pernod Ricard announced Full Year 2025 results, reporting a 5.5% decrease in revenue to €11.0 billion compared to FY 2024, but a 10% increase in net income to €1.63 billion. This indicates successful cost management despite revenue challenges, with the profit margin improving to 15% from 13% in FY 2024. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) of €6.47 aligned with analyst expectations.
• Despite meeting expectations, Pernod Ricard's shares were down 1.7% from a week prior on September 20, 2025, and trading volume declined 64% to 152,281 shares, suggesting limited investor enthusiasm following the results. This decrease in trading volume contrasts with typical session volumes.
• Analyst sentiment remained mixed throughout the month. While Berenberg and Jefferies reiterated "Buy" ratings with a target price of EUR 114 (as of September 18, 2025), Morgan Stanley considered the stock "too expensive" on September 10, 2025, contributing to flat trading on that day.
• Alphavalue commented on September 19, 2025, that Pernod Ricard’s “potential [remains] intact despite a transition year,” while the stock closed at €88.88, down 0.51% for the day, with a 5-day change of -1.70% and a year-to-date change of -18.46%.
• Industry headwinds are impacting Pernod Ricard, particularly in the U.S. market, which accounts for 19% of sales. U.S. alcohol consumption has decreased for three consecutive years, now 7% below 2019 levels, with another drop anticipated in 2025, prompting the industry to focus on "premiumization".
• Pernod Ricard filed its 2024/25 Universal Registration Document with the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF) on September 17, 2025, under number D.25-0638, providing comprehensive financial and governance information. RBC initiated a "Neutral" rating for the company on the same day.
• Bernstein reaffirmed its "Buy" rating on September 15, 2025, offering a counterpoint to the more cautious outlook from Morgan Stanley.

The Investment Story: September was a month of mixed signals for Pernod Ricard, with solid earnings offset by a slight dip in share price and a cautious outlook from some analysts, all set against a challenging industry backdrop. The company is navigating revenue headwinds through cost management and a focus on premium brands.

What It Means for Investors: Investors face a balancing act. While the company demonstrates resilience in profitability, the declining U.S. market and mixed analyst views suggest potential volatility. The focus on premiumization and cost savings will be key to watch.

Looking Ahead: Investors should monitor Pernod Ricard’s performance in the U.S. market and the effectiveness of its premiumization strategy. The company’s ability to deliver on its forecasted 1.4% average annual revenue growth over the next three years will also be crucial.

The Bottom Line: Pernod Ricard is a company navigating a complex environment. While short-term headwinds exist, its commitment to cost control, brand building, and a resilient profit margin suggest potential for long-term value, but requires careful monitoring of key market trends.