MoonLake (MLTX) | News Based Sentiment Analysis

• On September 29, 2025, MoonLake Immunotherapeutics experienced a dramatic 90% stock price crash, plummeting $55.75 from $61.99 to $6.24 per share following disappointing Phase 3 VELA-2 trial results for sonelokimab in hidradenitis suppurativa (HS). This outcome triggered widespread concern and investigations into potential misleading statements regarding the trial.
• Despite the negative reaction to the VELA-2 trial, the VELA-1 trial showed statistical significance with a HiSCR75 response rate of 34.8% for sonelokimab versus 17.5% for placebo (p<0.001). However, this positive data was largely overshadowed by the VELA-2 results.
• Following the trial results, a wave of analyst downgrades occurred between October 1st and October 3rd, 2025, from firms including Wolfe Research, Jefferies, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup, with price targets slashed from $80.00 to as low as $5.00. The average consensus price target now stands at $37.00.
• Major shareholder Bihua Chen significantly reduced their stake in the company between September 29th and September 30th, 2025, selling 6,499,978 shares for approximately $46,868,184 and an additional 5,827 shares for $40,555.92, adding to the negative sentiment.
• H.C. Wainwright adjusted their FY2025 earnings per share estimates upwards to ($3.29) on October 2, 2025, from a prior estimate of ($3.37), while the consensus for FY2025 remains at a projected loss of ($3.51) EPS. The company previously reported an EPS of ($0.87) on August 5, 2025, missing estimates by ($0.14).
• Trading volume surged on October 3, 2025, reaching 5,398,286 shares traded – a 323% increase from the previous session – reflecting the intense investor reaction to the recent news.
• Multiple law firms, including Hagens Berman (October 1, 2025), DJS Law Group (October 2, 2025), and Levi & Korsinsky (October 3, 2025), announced securities fraud investigations into MoonLake Immunotherapeutics, questioning whether investors were misled regarding the VELA-2 trial.

The Investment Story: September and early October were marked by a dramatic setback for MoonLake Immunotherapeutics, as disappointing trial data for sonelokimab triggered a massive stock decline, analyst downgrades, and insider selling, overshadowing any positive aspects of the VELA-1 trial.

What It Means for Investors: The failed VELA-2 trial significantly diminishes the near-term prospects for MoonLake Immunotherapeutics, raising serious questions about the future of sonelokimab and the company's overall value. The stock is now highly speculative and carries substantial risk.

Looking Ahead: Investors should closely monitor the November 5, 2025, earnings call for updates on the sonelokimab program and the company's future strategy, as well as the outcome of the shareholder investigations.

The Bottom Line: MoonLake Immunotherapeutics faces a critical juncture. The substantial loss of investor confidence and the bleak outlook for its lead drug candidate create significant headwinds, making it a very high-risk investment at this time, despite maintaining a strong liquidity position with a current ratio of 16.65 but experiencing a negative free cash flow of $166.8 million.