One Mobikwik Systems (MOBIKWIK) | News Based Sentiment Analysis

• On September 1, 2025, One MobiKwik Systems experienced a significant share price surge, jumping as much as 16% to INR 255, fueled by CFO Upasana Taku’s expectations for an EBITDA breakeven in H2 FY26. However, this positive movement came alongside the reporting of a widened consolidated loss for Q1 FY26, highlighting a mixed financial picture.
• Despite a 20.7% year-on-year decline in revenue to INR 271.3 crore for Q1 FY26, the company showed signs of stabilization with a 1.3% sequential increase. Importantly, the EBITDA loss narrowed to INR 31 crore in Q1 FY26, a INR 14 crore improvement from Q4 FY25, suggesting potential cost control measures are taking effect.
• A major shift in ownership occurred on September 1, 2025, as the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) fully exited, divesting its 2.10% stake for approximately INR 39 crore. This exit was quickly offset by purchases from BofA Securities Europe SA and SI Investments Broking Pvt Ltd, who acquired a 1.15% stake for INR 22.12 crore, indicating continued investor interest.
• Following the ADIA exit, One Mobikwik Systems’ shares climbed 8.12% to close at INR 237.74 on September 1, 2025, with a market capitalization of INR 445.46 crore. This rebound, coupled with a 9.26% gain reaching an intraday high of INR 236, reversed six consecutive days of decline, demonstrating a temporary shift in market sentiment.
• Zaakpay, a subsidiary of One MobiKwik Systems, partnered with CRUT on September 5, 2025, to launch a WhatsApp-based bus ticketing service in Odisha, leveraging the ONDC Network and aiming to benefit over 24 million annual users. This expansion into new services demonstrates a strategic effort to diversify revenue streams.
• One MobiKwik reported a consolidated loss of Rs 41.9 crore for Q1 FY26, compared to Rs 6.6 crore the previous year, but also highlighted positive trends like a lifetime high Payments GMV of ₹384,000 crore (a 53% YoY increase) and improved lending metrics. Lending EMI disbursals grew 31% QoQ to ₹693 crore, with take rates improving to 8.3%.
• Despite the reported losses, institutional investors increased their stake in One MobiKwik by 3.37% to 11.82% as of August 28, 2025, acquiring 9 lakh shares for Rs 22.12 crore during ADIA’s exit. This suggests confidence in the company’s long-term potential despite short-term challenges.
• On September 2, 2025, following ADIA’s sale, MobiKwik shares jumped 12-14% intraday to Rs 266.55, then settled at an 8.5% gain at Rs 258, extending a three-day rally to about 36% and trading 8% above its IPO price of ₹278 with high trading volumes of 3.6 crore shares.

The Investment Story: September was a month of contrasts for MobiKwik, marked by a significant share price rally driven by optimistic profitability projections, offset by continued losses and a major shareholder exit. The increased institutional investment and new partnership signal potential for future growth, but the company still faces challenges in achieving consistent profitability.

What It Means for Investors: The projected EBITDA breakeven in H2 FY26 is encouraging, but investors should carefully consider the recent losses and revenue decline. The ADIA exit introduces uncertainty, but the subsequent purchases by other institutions and the WhatsApp ticketing partnership offer some stability. The analyst's 69% upside potential remains attractive, but depends on the company executing its turnaround plan.

Looking Ahead: Investors should closely monitor the company's progress towards EBITDA breakeven in H2 FY26 and track revenue growth in subsequent quarters. Further developments in shareholding, the success of the WhatsApp ticketing service, and any changes in analyst ratings will also be key indicators.

The Bottom Line: MobiKwik remains a high-risk, high-reward investment. While the company is navigating a challenging period, the potential for a turnaround, coupled with positive analyst outlook and strategic partnerships, could lead to significant gains for investors willing to accept the inherent volatility.