Varun Beverages (VBL) | News Based Sentiment Analysis

• On September 24, 2025, Varun Beverages reported a strong Q3 performance, with revenue jumping 26.8% to ₹7094 crore compared to the ₹5594 crore reported in the June 2025 quarter. This growth was accompanied by a significant increase in profitability, with EBITDA rising 60.65% to ₹2074 crore and net profit surging 81.24% to ₹1325 crore – demonstrating robust operational momentum.
• Despite a 40% GST increase on carbonated beverages on September 4, 2025, VBL’s share price saw a recovery, increasing by ₹4.40 to close at ₹474.05 on September 8, 2025. This resilience was further underscored by a price reduction on Tropicana apple juice to Rs 105 per litre on September 21, 2025, following GST adjustments, showing the company's ability to adapt to changing tax conditions.
• Institutional investors continued to demonstrate confidence in VBL, participating in block trades totaling ₹89.66 crores on September 8, 2025, and ₹77.85 crores on September 2, 2025, involving 1,890,583 and 1.55 million shares respectively. Additionally, a block trade of 575,586 shares at Rs. 466.00 per share, totaling Rs. 26.82 crores, occurred on September 17, 2025, indicating continued shareholder activity.
• A management change occurred on September 15, 2025, with the resignation of Mr. Rajesh Kumar, Technical Head – India Operations. However, the company is actively engaging with investors, as evidenced by its scheduled participation in J.P. Morgan's 10th Annual India Conference on September 22, 2025, in Mumbai.
• As of September 23, 2025, analyst sentiment remained largely positive, with 91% recommending a “Buy” rating, 9% suggesting a “Hold,” and 0% advising a “Sell.” The average target price stood at ₹592.20, representing a 15% upside potential from the current market price.
• While the stock experienced a 31.62% fall from its 52-week high as of September 24, 2025, it rebounded by 1.92% on September 19, 2025, following positive forecasts for festive sales growth. However, a 1.73% drop occurred on September 16, 2025, due to reported challenges in the FMCG sector.

The Investment Story: September was a strong month for Varun Beverages, marked by impressive Q3 earnings growth and continued institutional investor confidence, despite facing headwinds from GST changes and broader FMCG sector challenges.

What It Means for Investors: The robust financial performance and positive analyst sentiment suggest VBL remains a compelling investment opportunity. While the GST impact and sector-wide challenges require monitoring, the company’s ability to navigate these issues and deliver strong results is encouraging.

Looking Ahead: Investors should closely watch for updates on the Nepal situation, the impact of the GST increase, and the progress of the Jager Renewables acquisition expected by June 2, 2026. Monitoring the shareholding pattern and analyst ratings will also be crucial.

The Bottom Line: Varun Beverages demonstrated resilience and growth potential in September, solidifying its position as a leading FMCG player in India. Despite short-term challenges, the company’s strong fundamentals and strategic initiatives make it an attractive long-term investment.