Equifax (EFX) | News Based Sentiment Analysis

• On October 1, 2025, Seaport Global initiated coverage on Equifax (NYSE:EFX) with a "Neutral" recommendation, projecting annual revenue of $5,943 million, a 1.76% increase, and non-GAAP EPS of $10.43. The firm's average one-year price target is $287.93 per share, representing a 12.24% upside from the $256.53 closing price, but they are awaiting a turnaround in the mortgage market.
• Also on October 1, 2025, Seaport Res Ptn issued Q3 2025 EPS estimates of $1.86 for Equifax, maintaining a "Hold" rating. Their full-year EPS forecast is $7.43, compared to a consensus of $7.58, with longer-term estimates reaching $10.92 by FY2027.
• A significant setback occurred on October 2, 2025, as Equifax's stock price dropped approximately 9.4% following Fair Isaac Corporation's (NYSE: FICO) launch of the "FICO Mortgage Direct License Program." Analysts estimate this could reduce credit bureau earnings by 10% to 15% by allowing mortgage providers to directly access FICO scores.
• Equifax is focused on growth and innovation in the UK and Ireland, appointing David Bernard as the new General Manager, effective October 1, 2025. The company recently completed a cloud transformation and launched new solutions like the Business Intelligence Suite and Financed Emissions Calculator, alongside partnerships with Sagacity and Render.
• Equifax Canada reported a surge in credit card fraud, with the rate jumping to 0.75% in Q2 2025, up from 0.44% a year prior, despite overall application fraud rates falling to 0.56%, the lowest since Q3 2022. Third-party fraud accounts for a concerning 83% of all credit card fraud.
• On September 30, 2025, Director Marcus Robert D. received 132 phantom stock units as deferred compensation, valued at $256.53 per share, instead of a cash retainer. This brings his direct share ownership to 2,127 shares.

The Investment Story: October brought a mix of cautious optimism and significant challenges for Equifax, with analyst coverage initiating at 'Neutral' alongside a concerning new competitive threat from FICO that sent the stock price tumbling. Strategic appointments and innovation in the UK & Ireland offer some positive counterweight.

What It Means for Investors: The FICO program launch is a major headwind, potentially impacting revenue and pricing power. While the UK & Ireland initiatives are encouraging, investors should closely monitor the impact of the FICO changes and reassess Equifax's growth prospects. The neutral analyst rating reflects this uncertainty.

Looking Ahead: Investors should watch for Equifax's response to the FICO program and any revisions to their financial guidance. Monitoring the trend in Canadian credit card fraud and the success of the UK & Ireland expansion will also be crucial.

The Bottom Line: October was a challenging month for Equifax, marked by a significant competitive threat. While the company is making strategic moves in other areas, the FICO development casts a shadow over its near-term outlook, requiring investors to exercise caution and closely monitor the situation.