GFL Environmental (GFL) | News Based Sentiment Analysis

• On September 9, 2025, GFL Environmental delivered a remarkable second quarter, significantly exceeding expectations with EPS of $0.26 – far above the anticipated $0.12 – and revenue reaching $1.68 billion compared to the expected $1.22 billion. This strong performance fueled a 10% increase in full-year 2025 EBITDA guidance to $1,950–$1,975 million, demonstrating increased confidence in the company’s ability to deliver.
• GFL continued its strategic expansion in the U.S. on September 9, 2025, by acquiring Superior Waste Industries in an all-cash transaction. Superior Waste is projected to contribute $345 million in annual revenue and is expected to positively impact GFL’s 2025 EBITDA margins, highlighting a focus on growth through acquisition.
• The company has a planned acquisition spending of approximately $900 million for 2025, with the Superior Waste Industries acquisition being a key component. While M&A spending was behind schedule earlier in the year, with only $200 million deployed by mid-year as of September 9, 2025, the company anticipates deals closing in the second half of the year will contribute to 2026 growth.
• Investor confidence in GFL is evident through increased holdings from several institutional investors. UniSuper Management Pty Ltd significantly increased its stake by 818.6%, now holding 36,742 shares valued at approximately $1.77 million as of September 13, 2025. Additionally, United Services Automobile Association purchased 7,798 shares valued at around $373,000 and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. increased its holdings by 94.1% as of September 14, 2025.
• Analyst sentiment remains strongly positive, with TD Cowen reiterating a 'Buy' rating and a $64.00 price target on September 9, 2025. BMO Capital and Truist Securities also raised their price targets to $53.00 and $60.00 respectively, reinforcing confidence in GFL’s growth potential.
• Simply Wall St analysis, as of September 13, 2025, indicates that GFL Environmental is currently undervalued, trading at CA$65.31 against an intrinsic value of CA$90.34, and anticipates profit to more than double over the next couple of years.
• A consensus “Buy” rating was maintained by 17 analysts, with a collective price target of $50.62 as of September 12, 2025, further supporting the positive outlook for the company.

The Investment Story: September was a standout month for GFL Environmental, characterized by a substantial earnings beat, strategic acquisitions, and a surge in institutional investor confidence, solidifying its growth trajectory.

What It Means for Investors: The strong Q2 results and raised guidance suggest GFL is successfully executing its growth strategy, while the increased institutional investment and positive analyst ratings indicate continued market confidence. The undervaluation highlighted by Simply Wall St suggests potential upside for investors.

Looking Ahead: Investors should closely monitor the completion of the remaining planned acquisitions for 2025 and assess their impact on EBITDA margins. The Q3 earnings release will be crucial to confirm continued momentum.

The Bottom Line: GFL Environmental presents a compelling investment opportunity, backed by robust financial performance, strategic acquisitions, and positive market sentiment. The company’s proactive management and improved financial position position it well for sustained growth in the environmental services sector.