International Paper (IP) | News Based Sentiment Analysis

• On September 21, 2025, International Paper announced the closure of two mills in Georgia by the end of September, reducing U.S. containerboard capacity by approximately 9% due to a decline in demand for corrugated packaging – levels not seen since 2016. This proactive step addresses a 2% projected demand drop for the year, signaling a response to challenging market conditions.
• The Federal Trade Commission granted early termination on September 24, 2025, for International Paper’s planned sale of its Global Cellulose Fibers (GCF) business to Absorbent Fiber Topco, Inc. for $1.5 billion, including $190 million in preferred stock. This clears a major regulatory hurdle, paving the way for the completion of the sale by year-end and providing a significant cash infusion.
• Following the GCF divestiture, International Paper is strategically repositioning its operations, converting its Alabama mill to containerboard production, as announced on September 23, 2025. This investment aligns with sustainable packaging trends and demonstrates a commitment to adapting to evolving market demands despite the mill closures.
• UBS reiterated a "Buy" rating on International Paper on September 22, 2025, after an analyst visit to a plant in Aurora, Illinois, highlighting positive insights from the box plant optimization program initiated in mid-2024. This positive assessment suggests the company’s operational improvements are gaining traction and resonating with analysts.
• Despite missing Q2 2025 EPS estimates by $0.18 (a 48.72% negative surprise), International Paper reported revenue of $6.77 billion on July 31, 2025, exceeding forecasts of $6.57 billion and increasing 42.9% year-over-year. This revenue beat, coupled with a substantial year-over-year increase, indicates underlying strength in the business despite short-term earnings pressures.
• International Paper updated its 2025 guidance on September 23, 2025, projecting $27 billion in revenue, driven in part by synergies from the DS Smith acquisition. A significant $916 million in institutional buying occurred on September 12, 2025, with trading volume reaching 3.44 million shares, demonstrating strong investor confidence.
• International Paper maintains a 55-year track record of consecutive dividend payments, currently yielding 4.1%, as of September 27, 2025. This consistent dividend payout signals financial stability and a commitment to returning capital to shareholders, even amidst restructuring efforts.
• Analyst sentiment is mixed, with a consensus "Hold" rating and an average price target of $55.75 (implying a 23.01% upside from the $45.32 current price as of September 26-27, 2025), while Jefferies lowered its price target from $61.00 to $59.00 on September 27, 2025, and JPMorgan downgraded the stock following a Q2 EBITDA miss.

The Investment Story: September was a month of strategic recalibration for International Paper, marked by proactive capacity reductions in response to declining demand, the nearing completion of a major divestiture, and continued investment in future growth areas. The company is navigating a challenging market environment while positioning itself for long-term success.

What It Means for Investors: The mill closures and GCF sale present short-term headwinds, but the strategic investments, positive analyst coverage from UBS, and consistent dividend payments suggest a long-term commitment to shareholder value. Investors should monitor the progress of the restructuring plan and the impact on earnings.

Looking Ahead: Investors should closely watch the Q3 2025 earnings release on October 30, 2025, for further details on the restructuring’s impact and the company’s outlook. The completion of the GCF sale by year-end will also be a key event to monitor.

The Bottom Line: International Paper is undergoing a significant transformation, and September’s developments reinforce the company’s commitment to streamlining operations and focusing on core assets. While risks remain, the continued institutional support and dividend payments provide a degree of confidence for long-term investors.