Knife River (KNF) | News Based Sentiment Analysis

• On September 24, 2025, Knife River Corporation's stock hit a new 52-week low of $73.93, closing at $74.20, reflecting investor reaction to recent earnings. The company's Q2 2025 EPS of $0.89 missed the $1.27 consensus estimate by $0.38, and revenue of $833.80 million fell short of the expected $902.26 million, though it was a 3.3% year-over-year increase. This earnings miss contributed to a decline in the stock price and prompted a reassessment of the company's near-term performance.
• Despite the recent stock decline, analysts maintained an average "Buy" rating with a consensus 12-month price target of $114.33 as of September 24, 2025, anticipating an EPS of 4.11 for the full fiscal year 2025. This suggests analysts believe the recent dip is a temporary setback and that the company has strong long-term potential.
• Institutional investors continue to show significant confidence in Knife River, collectively owning 80.11% of the stock as of September 26, 2025. Congress Asset Management Co. increased its holdings by 1.5% to 744,667 shares valued at approximately $60.80 million, while other institutions also increased their positions during the first quarter.
• Knife River highlighted its operational strengths in its September 2025 Investor Presentation, showcasing 1.2 billion tons of aggregates reserves, 130 ready-mix plants, and 54 asphalt plants across multiple states. Contracting services contribute 39% of the company's revenue, and the company is targeting a long-term Adjusted EBITDA Margin of over 20%, up from the 2024 margin of 16.0%.
• Following the 52-week low, Knife River's stock price experienced a slight recovery on September 26, 2025, gaining 2.14% to close at $73.58. However, the stock had fallen in 6 of the preceding 10 days, resulting in a 5.62% decline over that period, and its market capitalization stood at $4.08 billion with a P/E ratio of 26.74.
• Earlier in the month, on September 1, 2025, Knife River reported a record backlog of $1.3 billion, a nearly 30% year-over-year increase, with 80% expected to convert to revenue within the next year. This positive backlog growth was boosted by acquisitions of Kraemer Trucking and Excavating and High Desert Aggregate and Paving.

The Investment Story: September was a challenging month for Knife River, marked by an earnings miss and a subsequent stock price decline, but the company's strong backlog and continued institutional support offer a glimmer of optimism. The company is navigating near-term headwinds while positioning itself for future growth through strategic acquisitions and a focus on operational efficiency.

What It Means for Investors: The mixed signals suggest a company facing short-term challenges, but with solid underlying fundamentals and a positive long-term outlook. Investors should weigh the risks associated with the lowered guidance and recent performance against the potential rewards of the growing backlog and positive analyst ratings.

Looking Ahead: Investors should closely monitor the impact of the revised guidance and the conversion of the record backlog into revenue. Tracking the stock's performance and institutional activity will also be crucial in the coming months.

The Bottom Line: Knife River presents a potentially attractive investment opportunity for those willing to navigate short-term volatility, supported by a strong backlog, positive analyst ratings, and continued institutional interest, but the recent earnings miss and lowered guidance warrant careful consideration.