Occidental Petroleum (OXY) | News Based Sentiment Analysis

• On September 28-29, 2025, reports surfaced that Occidental Petroleum is in advanced talks to sell its OxyChem petrochemicals business for over $10 billion. This move is seen as a way to reduce the company’s $23.34 billion long-term debt (as of June 30, 2025) and increase financial flexibility, potentially leading to more cash for shareholders. OxyChem generated over $1.1 billion in earnings in 2024 and Barclays projects EBITDA of $1.24 billion in 2026 and $1.46 billion in 2027, suggesting a potential EBITDA multiple of around 7x.
• Despite lowering its 2025 EPS forecasts to $2.40 (down from $2.95) on September 3, 2025, due to falling oil prices reaching $60, Occidental’s stock saw a 2.59% increase on September 6, 2025. This rise may be linked to a new partnership with a renewable energy firm, signaling a continued commitment to diversifying its energy portfolio.
• Analyst sentiment remains mixed as of September 29, 2025, with a consensus "Hold" rating. Barclays maintained an "Equal Weight" rating with a $48 price target, citing potential balance sheet improvements from the OxyChem sale. However, Mizuho cut its target to $58 on September 18, 2025, while Goldman Sachs maintains a 'Sell' rating with a $45 target.
• Occidental continues to prioritize financial discipline, having reduced debt by $7.5 billion over the last 13 months, resulting in $410 million in annual interest expense savings. As of September 14, 2025, the company holds $24 billion in debt, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 66.8%. They are also targeting $500 million in cost cuts for 2025, including $150 million in CAPEX and OPEX reductions.
• Institutional investor activity was varied throughout September 2025. The Czech National Bank purchased 18,025 shares on September 18, 2025, while Norden Group LLC increased its stake by 25.0% during the second quarter, holding $1.7 million worth of shares as of September 23-29, 2025. Conversely, Belpointe Asset Management LLC reduced its position by 59.5%, selling 17,700 shares.
• A significant challenge emerged on September 17, 2025, when Colombian President Gustavo Petro moved to block the joint venture between Ecopetrol Permian LLC and Occidental Petroleum Corp in the Permian Basin, despite a prior agreement on February 4, 2025. This plan involved drilling 34 wells between April 2025 and June 2026, with an estimated investment of $885 million.
• Looking ahead, Occidental anticipates launching the Stratos direct air capture facility in Texas, with a capacity of 500,000 metric tons annually, in late 2025, and has announced $950 million in additional divestitures in 2025, focusing on non-core assets. On September 23, 2025, the stock closed at $46.42, a 1.44% increase, but is down 4.7% year-to-date.

The Investment Story: September was a month of contrasts for Occidental, marked by a potential major asset sale to bolster its balance sheet, ongoing financial discipline, and a significant setback in Colombia. The company is actively managing its portfolio and pursuing both traditional and renewable energy opportunities.

What It Means for Investors: The potential OxyChem sale is a positive development, suggesting a commitment to debt reduction and shareholder returns. However, the Colombian joint venture blockage introduces geopolitical risk and could impact future production. The mixed analyst sentiment and varied institutional activity reflect the uncertainty surrounding Occidental’s near-term prospects.

Looking Ahead: Investors should closely monitor the finalization of the OxyChem sale, the impact of the Colombian political situation, and Occidental’s Q3 2025 earnings report on November 11, 2025, where analysts forecast a 51% year-over-year decrease in EPS to $0.49.

The Bottom Line: Occidental Petroleum remains a complex investment navigating a volatile energy landscape. While the company is taking steps to strengthen its financial position and invest in sustainability, geopolitical risks and fluctuating commodity prices present ongoing challenges.