Aena S.M.E., S.A (AENA) | News Based Sentiment Analysis

• On September 3, 2025, Aena refuted Ryanair’s claims of exorbitant airport charges, stating that charges in 2023 were approximately €2, significantly lower than the €10.35 average in 2025, while Ryanair increased airfares by 21% in the past year – highlighting a dispute over pricing and potentially impacting route decisions.
• Despite Ryanair reducing its winter 2025 capacity in regional Spain by 41% and the Canary Islands by 10% (announced September 3, 2025), Aena reported on September 1, 2025, that airlines scheduled 2.1% more seats for the winter season (October 26, 2025, to March 28, 2026), suggesting overall resilient travel demand.
• Aena’s stock demonstrated strong long-term performance, yielding a 37% return over the past year (as of September 9, 2025), with a doubling in value over the last three years, though short-term performance was mixed with a 2.6% rise in the past three months.
• Analysts currently have an average 12-month price target of €23.95 for Aena (September 11, 2025), representing a -3.69% downside from the current share price of €24.87, with a consensus rating of "OUTPERFORM" and a "Good" agreement range.
• Aena’s Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio of 18.5x (September 11, 2025) is considered good value relative to its peer average of 49.3x, but expensive compared to its estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio of 16.8x and the European Infrastructure industry average of 18.2x.
• Based on a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis on September 9, 2025, Aena is considered slightly overvalued by 2% compared to its calculated fair value of €24.
• Aena anticipates Spain approaching an all-time record of 100 million international tourists in 2025 (September 3, 2025), and projects air traffic for the “winter season 2025” to reach a new all-time high, with commercial revenue per passenger growing rapidly at 5.2% per pax.
• On September 3, 2025, Aena proposed an increase of €0.68 in airport tariffs for 2026, in accordance with its regulatory framework.

The Investment Story: Aena is navigating a complex landscape of resilient travel demand, airline disputes, and valuation debates, with a strong long-term performance record but mixed short-term signals. The company is proactively managing tariffs and anticipating record tourism numbers.

What It Means for Investors: Investors should weigh the potential impact of the Ryanair dispute and the slightly overvalued status (according to analyst consensus) against the positive backdrop of growing tourism and strong historical returns. The current valuation suggests caution, but the long-term growth potential remains attractive.

Looking Ahead: Investors should monitor the outcome of the airline fee dispute, particularly with Ryanair, and watch for any further adjustments to capacity plans. The awarding of the Malaga Airport expansion contract by Q1 2026 will also be a key event to watch.

The Bottom Line: Aena remains a fundamentally strong company benefiting from the recovery in air travel, but investors should be aware of the short-term challenges and valuation concerns. A cautious approach is warranted, with a focus on monitoring the resolution of the Ryanair dispute and upcoming contract awards.