Criteo S.A (CRTO) | News Based Sentiment Analysis

• On September 10, 2025, Criteo announced a new integration with Google, becoming Google's first onsite retail media partner through a limited beta in the Americas via Search Ads 360. This collaboration aims to provide Criteo’s network of over 200 retailers access to new demand channels and offer brands unified campaign measurement, potentially expanding both direct and indirect demand for Criteo’s retail media offerings.
• Following the Google partnership announcement on September 10, 2025, Benchmark reiterated its "Buy" rating and $42.00 price target for Criteo on September 16, 2025, believing Google’s endorsement should bolster demand. InvestingPro analysis indicated Criteo’s stock, trading at $21.96, appeared undervalued at the time.
• Despite positive developments, Criteo’s stock hit a new 52-week low of $21.70 on September 16, 2025, down from $22.64, with a trading volume of 79,264 shares. Analysts have mixed views, with price targets ranging from $38.00 to $51.00, and a consensus "Hold" rating.
• Investor concerns increased as a major retail media client announced plans to significantly reduce the scope of Criteo’s services starting in November, contributing to a -6.74% one-month return and a -47.53% loss over the last 52 weeks. On September 12, 2025, Criteo’s stock closed at $22.01 per share, with a market capitalization of $1.152 billion.
• Criteo reported remarkably strong Q2 2025 results on September 16, 2025, with adjusted EPS reaching $0.92, surpassing the $0.71 forecast by 29.58%. Revenue also exceeded expectations, hitting $483 million versus the anticipated $275 million – a 75.62% revenue surprise.
• Following the strong Q2 earnings, Criteo raised its full-year 2025 guidance on September 16, 2025, projecting Contribution ex-TAC growth between +3% and +4% at constant currency, an improvement from previous low-single-digit expectations. They also forecast Q3 2025 Contribution ex-TAC between $277 million and $283 million, representing +5% to +7% year-over-year growth.
• Two Sigma Securities LLC purchased a new stake worth approximately $292,000, and Engineers Gate Manager LP significantly increased their stake by 170.1%, acquiring 43,376 additional shares valued at $1,650,000, now holding a total of 68,873 shares, indicating continued institutional investment.
• Criteo management is scheduled to participate in the BofA Annual Financials CEO Conference in London on September 17, 2025, offering an opportunity to provide further insights into the company’s strategy and outlook.

The Investment Story: September was a month of contrasts for Criteo, marked by a strong Q2 earnings beat and a promising partnership with Google, but overshadowed by investor concerns regarding client retention and overall stock performance. The company is navigating a dynamic retail media landscape with both opportunities and challenges.

What It Means for Investors: The positive earnings and Google partnership are encouraging signs, but the client reduction and stock volatility suggest significant risks. While institutional investment provides some support, investors should carefully weigh the potential rewards against the inherent uncertainties.

Looking Ahead: Investors should closely monitor the rollout of the Google partnership, the impact of the client reduction, and Criteo’s performance in Q3 2025. The BofA conference on September 17, 2025, could provide valuable insights into management’s strategy for addressing these challenges.

The Bottom Line: Criteo remains a potentially attractive investment within the growing retail media sector, but its short-term performance is likely to be volatile. The company’s ability to successfully navigate client relationships and capitalize on the Google partnership will be crucial for long-term success.