TotalEnergies SE (TTE) | News Based Sentiment Analysis

• On September 2, 2025, TotalEnergies expanded its exploration portfolio by signing Production Sharing Contracts for offshore licenses (PPL 2000 and PPL 2001) in Nigeria, covering 2,000 square kilometers, marking the first time an international company has been awarded exploration licenses in a Nigerian bid round in over a decade. This demonstrates a commitment to growth in the African energy market.
• TotalEnergies further solidified its LNG position on September 9, 2025, with a Heads of Agreement with KOGAS for 1 million tons per year of LNG, increasing to 3 million tons per year from 2028, over a 10-year period. This deal reinforces TotalEnergies’ position as the world’s third-largest LNG supplier and targets the growing Asian market.
• Building on this, TotalEnergies signed another agreement with KOGAS on September 9, 2025, to increase LNG supply to 3 Mt per year from 2028, originating from its U.S. LNG production and offtake. This expansion aligns with TotalEnergies’ goal of having natural gas comprise nearly 50% of its sales mix by 2030.
• TotalEnergies made a significant investment in U.S. LNG infrastructure on September 12, 2025, acquiring a 10% direct stake in Train 4 of the Rio Grande LNG facility in South Texas, adding to its existing 17.1% shareholding in NextDecade. The estimated project cost exceeds $7 billion, with commissioning targeted for 2030.
• Despite these positive developments, the market revised downward FY2025 revenue expectations for TotalEnergies by -1.59% and EPS estimates by -0.99% over the past three months, as of September 16, 2025. This resulted in a -2.29% change in the company’s stock price during the same period.
• Between September 8 and September 12, 2025, TotalEnergies repurchased shares, spending over EUR 173 million on transactions ranging from 51.93 EUR/share to 52.66 EUR/share. This demonstrates a continued commitment to returning value to shareholders.
• RBC affirmed its Outperform rating on TotalEnergies on September 16, 2025, noting potential spending and buyback cuts. Analysts currently have a “Moderate Buy” consensus rating with an average price target of $67.49 USD, with forecasts ranging from $65.00 to $75.00 USD.
• Simply Wall St’s analysis, as of September 13, 2025, indicates TotalEnergies is undervalued by nearly a fifth, with a DCF model suggesting a fair value of €63.53.

The Investment Story: September was a strategically active month for TotalEnergies, focused on expanding its LNG portfolio and securing future energy supplies, while also returning capital to shareholders. Despite some market headwinds and downward revisions in expectations, the company continues to invest in long-term growth.

What It Means for Investors: The company’s strategic investments in LNG and exploration, coupled with share repurchases, present a balanced approach. However, investors should be aware of the downward revisions in revenue and EPS expectations, which may indicate short-term challenges.

Looking Ahead: Investors should closely watch for updates from the Investor Day on September 29, 2025, and the Q3 2025 earnings release on October 30, 2025. Monitoring the progress of the Rio Grande LNG project and the KOGAS agreements will also be crucial.

The Bottom Line: TotalEnergies is navigating the evolving energy landscape by diversifying its portfolio, strengthening its LNG position, and prioritizing shareholder value. While facing some short-term market pressures, the company’s long-term strategic investments and commitment to returns present a compelling investment opportunity.