Old National Bancorp (ONB) | News Based Sentiment Analysis

• On September 1, 2025, Old National Bancorp reported second quarter results exceeding expectations with diluted EPS of $0.53 versus a consensus of $0.51 and revenue of $633.41 million, surpassing the $622.83 million consensus. This strong performance was fueled by a net interest income jump to $522 million and a net interest margin expansion of 26 basis points to 3.53%, signaling improved profitability.
• Institutional investment activity was notably positive throughout the month. Rafferty Asset Management LLC increased its stake by 22.5% to 449,606 shares valued at approximately $9.5 million, and Millennium Management LLC made an astonishing 10,795.2% increase, acquiring nearly 4.8 million shares – demonstrating growing confidence in the bank’s future.
• Further bolstering investor confidence, Keeley Teton Advisors LLC lifted its stake by 7.2% to 174,501 shares valued at $3.70 million. Fifth Third Bancorp increased their stake by 21.9% to 3,875 shares valued at $82,000, and UMB Bank n.a. increased their stake by 122.3% to 3,975 shares valued at $84,000 during the first quarter of September 2025.
• At the Barclays Global Financial Services Conference on September 8, 2025, CEO Jim Ryan emphasized the successful, ahead-of-schedule integration of Bremer Bank and stated the company is prioritizing organic growth over new M&A deals. The company anticipates organic loan growth of 5% to 7% and aims to maintain a neutral net interest margin.
• Old National Bancorp is considering share repurchases, as indicated at the Barclays conference on September 8, 2025, due to the perceived undervaluation of its stock and its strong capital position. This potential move could provide additional support to the stock price.
• While analyst consensus remains at "Moderate Buy" with an average price target of $26.40 (a 15.44% upside from the $22.87 price on September 8, 2025), Zacks lowered its EPS estimate slightly to $0.55 per share on September 3, 2025, from $0.56.
• Insider selling occurred on September 1, 2025, with Brent R. Tischler and John V. Moran disposing of shares to satisfy tax obligations upon vesting of restricted stock awards – 2,134 shares at $22.89 and 2,128 shares at $22.89 respectively.
• A quarterly cash dividend of $0.14 per share was declared on September 5, 2025, payable on September 15, 2025, to shareholders of record as of September 5, 2025, representing an annualized yield of 2.4%.

The Investment Story: September was a positive month for Old National Bancorp, marked by strong earnings, increased institutional investment, and a focus on organic growth following the successful Bremer Bank integration. The company is demonstrating confidence in its future prospects and returning value to shareholders through dividends and potential share repurchases.

What It Means for Investors: The combination of solid financial performance, growing institutional confidence, and a potential share repurchase program suggests Old National Bancorp is well-positioned for continued growth. The dividend provides a steady income stream, while the potential for a 15.44% price increase offers attractive upside.

Looking Ahead: Investors should monitor the bank's ability to achieve its projected 5% to 7% organic loan growth and track the progress of its efficiency ratio, currently at 50%. Further announcements regarding share repurchases will also be key.

The Bottom Line: Old National Bancorp delivered a compelling performance in September, solidifying its position as a promising investment opportunity. The bank's strong fundamentals, coupled with positive market sentiment and a commitment to shareholder returns, make it an attractive option for investors.