Carrier Global (CARR) | News Based Sentiment Analysis

• On September 1, 2025, Carrier Global began the month with shares trading down to $65.23, following a strong second-quarter earnings report where adjusted EPS reached $0.92, exceeding expectations of $0.90, and revenue hit $6.11 billion. However, the 8.63% decline in pre-market trading suggested investors were looking for even more, or reacted to other factors not fully detailed in the earnings report.
• At the Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference on September 10, 2025, Carrier outlined significant challenges in the North American residential HVAC market, projecting a greater than 40% drop in Q3 volumes and a 30% sales decline. To address this, the company announced plans to reduce its indirect headcount by over 2,000 and lower factory output, aiming for $75 million to $100 million in monthly field inventory reduction during Q3.
• Despite residential headwinds, Carrier highlighted strong growth in its commercial HVAC sector and data center sales, projecting $1 billion in data center sales for the year, doubling from $500 million last year, as of September 10, 2025. They also plan to quadruple capacity for water-cooled and air-cooled chillers in North America and add 1,000 technicians to support this growth.
• Carrier is increasingly leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) to drive innovation and productivity, with code written by machines increasing from 18% to 30% by September 10, 2025. This is fueling growth in their BPO services, which is now their fastest-growing service line.
• On September 10, 2025, Carrier issued a Q3 guidance update, expecting a $500 million sales shortfall and an adjusted EPS headwind of $0.20 to $0.25 due to weaker consumer demand and distributor destocking. This revised guidance is now 30% below consensus expectations, a significant reset from a prior pre-announcement of 13% below consensus in late July.
• Analysts responded to the challenging outlook by lowering price targets. Goldman Sachs lowered its target from $88.00 to $76.00, Barclays from $82.00 to $74.00, RBC Capital from $87.00 to $75.00, and Jefferies from $100.00 to $90.00, all as of September 12, 2025.
• Institutional investors continued to adjust their positions. Silicon Valley Capital Partners acquired 4,545 shares valued at approximately $288,000 on September 13, 2025, while JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Brown Advisory Inc. increased their stakes in Q1, owning 31,126,869 and 9,673,979 shares respectively.
• On September 6, 2025, Carrier appointed Ms. Beril Yildiz as Vice President, Controller, and Chief Accounting Officer, signaling a focus on reinforcing financial leadership.

The Investment Story: September was a tale of two markets for Carrier Global, with robust commercial and data center growth offset by significant headwinds in the residential HVAC sector, leading to lowered guidance and analyst price targets.

What It Means for Investors: The residential market weakness presents a near-term challenge, impacting sales and earnings. However, the company's diversification into higher-growth areas like data centers and its focus on AI-driven productivity offer potential long-term opportunities. The stock's volatility and mixed analyst sentiment suggest caution is warranted.

Looking Ahead: Investors should closely monitor Carrier's Q3 earnings release on October 23, 2025, for further details on the residential market downturn and the effectiveness of their cost-cutting measures. Tracking institutional investor activity and the impact of AI initiatives will also be crucial.

The Bottom Line: Carrier Global faces near-term challenges but remains a potentially attractive investment for those willing to navigate volatility. The company's strategic shift towards higher-growth segments and its commitment to innovation provide a foundation for future success, but careful monitoring of market conditions and execution is essential.