Guess (GES) | News Based Sentiment Analysis

• On September 29, 2025, Investing.com's Fair Value analysis revealed a potential 65% return on Guess? stock since February 2025, currently trading at $16.70 after initially being identified at $10.16. The analysis projects a 50.59% upside, setting a target price of $16.83, supported by revenue growth reaching $3.09 billion and exceeding quarterly expectations, particularly in Europe. This suggests the market may be undervaluing the company.
• Guess? continues to navigate a potential take-private deal with Authentic Brands, with the company evaluating the $1.4 billion proposal as of September 29, 2025. This demonstrates market recognition of the company’s underlying value, even as the acquisition process unfolds.
• Despite the acquisition offer, investors should be aware of potential legal challenges, as The DJS Law Group announced an investigation on September 29, 2025, into potential breaches of fiduciary duty by Guess?’s directors and management. This investigation centers on whether the board acted in the best interests of investors.
• Institutional investor activity was mixed during the month, with Voya Investment Management LLC increasing its stake by 67.3% to 38,642 shares valued at approximately $428,000 as of September 28, 2025, signaling confidence. However, Comerica Bank significantly reduced its stake earlier in September.
• Guess? stock demonstrated positive technical momentum, surpassing its 200-day moving average on September 19, 2025, and trading as high as $16.81 on September 23, 2025, compared to a 200-day moving average of $12.54. This indicates growing investor interest and a shift in market sentiment.
• Analyst sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with UBS Group raising its target price to $16.75 on September 23, 2025, while Small Cap Consu downgraded the stock to a “hold” rating. The consensus rating remains “Hold” with an average price target of $16.75 from three analysts.
• Guess? exceeded Q2 2026 earnings estimates on September 28, 2025, reporting EPS of $0.26, surpassing the $0.16 consensus estimate by $0.10. Revenue for the quarter reached $772.94 million, exceeding the $758.72 million estimate and representing a 5.5% year-over-year increase.

The Investment Story: September was a month of contrasts for Guess?, with strong financial performance and positive technical indicators offset by ongoing legal scrutiny and mixed analyst sentiment surrounding the pending acquisition by Authentic Brands. The company continues to demonstrate underlying business strength even amidst the takeover process.

What It Means for Investors: The take-private offer at $16.75 per share remains the primary driver of potential returns, but investors should closely monitor the shareholder investigation and potential legal challenges. The strong Q2 results and positive analyst revisions provide some downside protection, but the acquisition timeline and ultimate success remain uncertain.

Looking Ahead: Investors should watch for updates on the shareholder investigation, the closing of the acquisition in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026, and any further changes in analyst ratings or institutional holdings. The estimated ex-dividend date of December 11, 2025, with a dividend of $0.23 per share, is also a key date to monitor.

The Bottom Line: Guess? presents a compelling, yet complex, investment opportunity. The acquisition provides a defined exit, but investors must weigh the potential risks associated with the legal investigation and the uncertainty surrounding the deal's completion against the company's improving fundamentals and market momentum.