TC Energy (TRP) | News Based Sentiment Analysis

• On September 9th, TC Energy brought the Eastern Panhandle Expansion Project pipeline in West Virginia into service, representing over $1.6 billion in investment since 2020. This expansion boosts natural gas access and signals a continued commitment to American energy infrastructure, with plans for an additional $8.5 billion over the next five years – a positive sign for long-term growth.
• Despite reporting Q2 2025 EPS of $0.59, surpassing estimates by $0.03 on September 20th, revenue fell short at $1.82 billion compared to the expected $2.56 billion. This disconnect between earnings and revenue raises concerns about top-line growth, even with profitability.
• TC Energy raised its 2025 adjusted core profit (EBITDA) forecast to a range of C$10.8 to C$11.0 billion (or $7.99 billion to $8.14 billion) on September 20th, citing increasing demand for natural gas. This revised guidance, up from C$10.7 to C$10.9 billion, suggests a more optimistic outlook despite revenue challenges.
• Analysts have revised the 2025 EPS estimate downward to $3.52 as of September 19th, citing factors like lower AFUDC and increased interest expenses. However, a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating with an average target price of C$74.46 (TSE) or $56.87 (NYSE) indicates continued confidence from the analyst community.
• Unusual options trading activity was observed on September 17th, with traders purchasing 16,157 put options – a 1,446% increase from the typical daily volume. This surge in put option buying suggests increased bearish sentiment among some investors.
• TC Energy declared a quarterly common share dividend of $0.85 per share on September 19th, translating to an annualized dividend of $3.40 and a yield of 4.7% (NYSE) or 4.72% (TSX). This represents a strong return for shareholders, with a payout ratio of 85.36%.
• Institutional investors continued to show interest, with several firms increasing their stakes in Q1 and Q2 2025, including Vanguard Group and the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board. Miller Howard Investments acquired an additional 558,498 shares, signaling confidence in the company's long-term prospects.

The Investment Story: September presented a mixed bag for TC Energy, with infrastructure progress and dividend strength offset by revenue shortfalls and lowered earnings estimates. The company is navigating a complex landscape of energy demand and financial pressures.

What It Means for Investors: Investors should carefully weigh the attractive dividend yield and institutional support against the revenue concerns and analyst revisions. The stock presents a potential opportunity, but requires close monitoring of future earnings reports and market conditions.

Looking Ahead: The next key event is the earnings release on November 6, 2025, where investors will be closely watching the Q3 EPS forecast of $0.61 and the anticipated 19.74% year-over-year decrease. Continued monitoring of institutional activity and analyst updates is also recommended.

The Bottom Line: TC Energy remains a complex investment with both strengths and weaknesses. While the company is making strategic investments and rewarding shareholders, revenue concerns and a shifting energy landscape necessitate a cautious and data-driven approach.